考虑心理变量的老年人错峰出行选择行为分析
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1.华东交通大学交通运输工程学院;2.华南理工大学 土木与交通学院;3.江西省交通运输厅规划办公室

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国家自然科学基金(52162042);国家自然科学基金(71961006);江西省省教育厅一般课题(GJJ190331)


Analysis of the Choice Behavior of the Elderly Off-peak Travel Incorporating Psychological Factors
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    摘要:

    老年群体因身体素质以及出行时间约束强度有别于一般通勤者,其出行方式通常为公交或步行。本文利用验证性因素分析结合二元logit模型,研究早高峰暂停公交优惠政策前后,老年人个人统计学属性以及老年群体对日常出行态度、在高峰时段乘坐公交的感受、对错峰出行的支持意愿等心理因素对老年人出行行为的影响,并利用潜在分类模型对老年群体进行分类分析。结果表明,在短距离出行中,老年人的各种心理因素均对老年人步行选择有显著影响;在高峰时段公交出行中,老年群体的选择会受到公交优惠政策变化和群体对于错峰出行支持度的影响。通过潜分类模型计算发现老年群体中出行目的性强,对于高峰公交出行、错峰出行感受较为敏感的老年群体所占比例较低。

    Abstract:

    The elderly due to physical fitness and travel time different from commuters, they usually travel by bus or walking. Using the confirmatory factor analysis and binary logit model, studying the influences of the elderly"s personal statistical attributes and psychological factors on the travel behavior, such as their attitude towards daily travel, their feelings about taking buses at peak times, and their travel intention to avoid rush hours before and after the preferential policy of suspending public transport at morning peak hours. The latent classification model was used to classify and analyze the elderly groups. The results show that all kinds of psychological factors have significant influence on elderly’s short-distance trips. The bus preferential policy and the group"s support for off-peak travel have a significant impact on the elderly’s choice. The latent classification model shows that the survey objects have necessary travel purpose, and the proportion of elderly groups who are sensitive to bus travel and off-peak travel is low.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-01-21
  • 最后修改日期:2022-03-01
  • 录用日期:2022-03-07
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-10-11
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