The low-carbon development of cities is an important lever in China"s ecological civilization construction, and the "strong provincial capital" strategy has had a significant impact on the coordinated development between regions, which puts forward new requirements for the low-carbon economic development and industrial selection of cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under the "strong provincial capital" strategy. In this regard, the study uses the random forest model to describe the low-carbon economic effects of the industries in the prefecture level cities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and discusses the problem of industry selection. The results indicate that: (1) The carbon emission reduction potential of urban industries in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is significant, with the construction industry being the largest. (2) Under the strategy of "strengthening provincial capitals", Shanghai, Wuhan, Chongqing, and Chengdu have relatively full development of low-carbon industries, while small core provincial capitals such as Nanchang, Guiyang, Kunming, and Changsha have great potential for emission reduction in manufacturing and some social service industries. (3) Provincial capital cities should focus on developing social service industries, while non provincial capital cities should select industries with their own characteristics for key development based on their own resource endowments.