基于多尺度动态时空卷积网络的交通流速度预测
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河海大学土木与交通学院

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江苏省自然科学基金


Traffic Speed Prediction Based on Multi-scale Dynamic Spatio-temporal Graphs
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    摘要:

    准确可靠的交通流速度对提升交通管理效率、缓解交通拥堵具有重要意义。为实现交通流速度的准确预测,深入挖掘复杂的动态时空关系,提出了一种基于多尺度动态时空卷积网络的交通流速度预测模型(Multi-scale Dynamic Spatio-temporal Convolutional Network, MDSTCN)。首先,在图卷积神经网络基础上,构建自适应的静态空间邻接矩阵,引入注意力机制捕捉交通流的方向性和动态交互,挖掘复杂的动态空间关系;其次,采用多尺度膨胀卷积结构捕捉时间局部特征与长期趋势;最后,基于真实数据集对模型进行训练和测试,设计了多种实验对比。结果表明,提出的MDSTCN对比最佳基线模型Graph WaveNet,RMSE、MAE、MAPE平均相对下降了5.91%、7.51%、8.59%;15、30、60 min的预测误差的波动幅度最小,突出其在长期预测任务中的良好适应性和稳定性。

    Abstract:

    Accurate and reliable traffic speed prediction is crucial for enhancing traffic management efficiency and alleviating traffic congestion. To improve the traffic speed prediction accuracy and capture complex dynamic spatio-temporal dependencies in traffic data, this study proposes a traffic speed prediction model based on the multi-scale dynamic spatio-temporal convolutional network (MDSTCN). Firstly, an adaptive static spacial adjacency matrix is constructed based on the graph convolutional network, and attention mechanism is introduced to capture the directional dependencies and dynamic interactions of traffic flow, thereby uncovering the intricate dynamic spatial relationships. Secondly, a multi-scale causal dilated convolutional structure is adopted to extract temporal correlations encompassing both local patterns and long-term trends. Finally, the model is trained and tested on a real-world dataset, with a variety of comparative experiments designed. The results show that compared with the best baseline model Graph WaveNet, the proposed MDSTCN model achieves average relative reductions of 5.91% in RMSE, 7.51% in MAE, and 8.59% in MAPE. Furthermore, the prediction error fluctuation across 15/30/60-minute time horizons is minimal, highlighting its good adaptability and stability in long-term prediction tasks.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-19
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-27
  • 录用日期:2025-09-02
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-05
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