城市轨道交通限流条件下异质乘客早高峰出行时间选择行为研究
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上海工程技术大学

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上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2022EGL003)


Research on the Time Selection Behavior of Heterogeneous Passengers during the Morning Peak under the Flow Restriction Conditions of Urban Rail Transit
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    摘要:

    城市轨道交通早高峰常态大客流时段客流拥挤,管理者普遍采取车站限流策略,乘客出行行为表现出偏好性和异质性。为了深入理解早高峰时段不同乘客群体的出行时间选择行为以及限流策略的作用机制,本文考虑个人属性、出行特性和态度偏好,以不同计划出行时间和通勤时长为情景,设计乘客出行时间选择意愿调查问卷。依据上海地铁的问卷调查结果,选取年龄、乘客期望到达时间弹性和拥挤度敏感性作为反映乘客异质性的特性变量,构建乘客出行时间选择的多项Logit模型(MNL)和考虑乘客异质性的混合Logit模型(ML)。运用Biogeme软件对模型参数进行标定,结果显示:所有特性变量中,旅行耗时对乘客出行时间选择的影响最为显著;计划出发时间与限流开始或结束时间更为接近,通勤时长更长,乘客规避限流的意愿更强;个体异质性分析表明,具有灵活到达时间的乘客更愿意调整出行时间以避开限流或列车拥挤,拥挤度敏感性更高和年龄较小的乘客更关注排队候车人数。

    Abstract:

    During the regular heavy passenger flow periods in the morning peak of urban rail transit, stations become crowded, prompting managers to commonly adopt station flow restriction strategies, resulting in preference and heterogeneity in passenger travel behavior. In order to gain a deeper understanding of the travel time choice behavior of different passenger groups during the morning rush hour and the mechanism of flow restriction strategies, this paper considers individual attributes, travel characteristics, and attitudinal preferences. It designs a questionnaire on passengers" willingness to choose travel times, taking into account different planned travel times and commuting durations as scenarios. Based on the questionnaire survey results of Shanghai Metro, age, passenger expected arrival time elasticity, and congestion sensitivity were selected as characteristic variables reflecting passenger heterogeneity. Subsequently, a multinomial Logit model (MNL) for passenger travel time selection and a mixed Logit model (ML) considering passenger heterogeneity were constructed. The model parameters are estimated using Biogeme software. The results indicate that, among all characteristic variables, travel duration has the most significant impact on passengers" travel time choices. Passengers are more inclined to avoid flow restriction when their planned departure times are closer to the start or end of flow restriction periods and when their commuting durations are longer. The analysis of individual heterogeneity reveals that passengers with flexible arrival times are more willing to adjust their travel times to avoid flow restriction or train congestion. Passengers with higher congestion sensitivity and younger passengers pay more attention to the number of people waiting in line.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-22
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-07
  • 录用日期:2025-08-20
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-05
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