双重不确定条件下低碳多式联运多目标优化
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华东交通大学交通运输工程学院

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国家自然科学(52262048)


Multi-objective optimization of low-carbon intermodal transportation under dual uncertainty conditions
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    摘要:

    针对运输需求和运输时间不确定条件下的低碳多式联运网络,考虑等待成本、时间窗及班期等影响因素,探究集装箱多式联运网络多目标优化的问题。采用鲁棒优化的方法处理运输需求量的波动,以Monte Carlo模拟时间扰动表征运输时间的不确定性,纳入混合时间窗约束条件,构建以经济成本、运输时间和总碳排放量为优化目标的随机鲁棒优化模型。为提升算法收敛质量和维持种群多样性,设计结合多交叉变异策略的改进自适应快速非支配排序遗传算法Ⅱ。为避免参数不确定风险对承运过程产生危害,多式联运经营者从帕累托前沿上找到最符合决策者偏好的“满意解”,决策方案更倾向于低碳运输。改进的NSGA-II算法有效地处理了货运网络优化问题中的多目标和不确定性,为决策者提供了在不同鲁棒水平下的成本、时间和环境影响的综合视角,证明了该方法在解决实际复杂运输问题中的潜力和有效性。考虑自身内外环境,承运人可借鉴参数各波动影响下运输决策的变化情况,为实际运输制定低碳合理的运输方案。

    Abstract:

    For low-carbon multimodal transport networks under uncertain transportation demand and transit time conditions, considering factors such as waiting costs, time windows, and service frequency, this study explores the multi-objective optimization problem of container multimodal transport networks. Robust optimization is employed to handle fluctuations in transportation demand, Monte Carlo simulation is used to represent uncertainties in transportation time, and mixed time window constraints are introduced to construct a stochastic robust optimization model targeting total cost, total carbon emissions, and total time. To improve algorithm convergence and maintain population diversity, an improved adaptive fast non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II integrating multiple crossover and mutation strategies is designed. To avoid risks from parameter uncertainty affecting enterprise operations, multimodal transport operators identify the most preferred "satisfactory solutions" on the Pareto frontier according to decision-maker preferences, with decision plans favoring low-carbon transport. The improved NSGA-II algorithm effectively addresses multi-objective and uncertainty challenges in freight network optimization, providing decision-makers with a comprehensive perspective on cost, time, and environmental impact under varying robustness levels, demonstrating its potential and effectiveness in solving complex practical transportation problems. In light of their internal and

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-13
  • 最后修改日期:2026-03-17
  • 录用日期:2026-04-13
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-22
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