基于时空风险场的自主换道决策模型
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同济大学 道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室

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国家自然科学基金项目


A discretionary lane-change decision-making model based on spatiotemporal risk field
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    摘要:

    针对高速公路环境中自主换道决策复杂且影响行车安全与运行稳定性的问题,以及现有模型难以捕捉周围车辆的动态风险交互、无法充分刻画驾驶人意图的时间演化特征,导致预测精度和泛化能力受限的不足,提出一种融合时空风险场的自主换道决策模型。将时间序列车辆运动学、驾驶行为与风险表征相结合,采用基于注意力机制的LSTM网络构建时空风险场集成换道模型(SRF-DLC)。利用highD数据集中的5631条轨迹(时长1~4s)进行训练,预测车道保持、左侧变道和右侧变道三种操作行为。通过消融实验验证时空风险场的关键作用,并与多种现有方法进行对比分析。以3s历史轨迹训练的模型表现最优,峰值准确率达到96.74%,该时长与人类自然决策时间线吻合。消融实验表明,去除时空风险场组件后准确率最大降幅达47%。与其他方法相比,SRF-DLC模型在预测性能上具有明显优势,显式引入时空风险上下文并合理选择历史轨迹长度是实现高精度自主换道预测的关键因素。

    Abstract:

    Discretionary lane-changing (DLC) is a complex and safety-critical maneuver in highway driving that presents substantial challenges to traffic safety and operational stability. Accurately modeling DLC decisions remains difficult. Many existing approaches have limitations. They often fail to capture dynamic risk interactions with surrounding vehicles. They also inadequately model the temporal evolution of driver intent. These limitations often lead to limited prediction accuracy and generalizability. To address these gaps, we propose a new model, the Spatiotemporal Risk Field-integrated DLC (SRF-DLC) model. This model integrates time-sequential vehicle kinematics, driving behavior, and risk representation using an Attention-based LSTM network. The model was trained on trajectories from the highD dataset. We used 5,631 trajectories, each lasting 1 to 4 seconds. The model forecasts three maneuvers: lane-keeping, overtaking, and fold-down. Results show that the model trained on 3-second trajectories performs best. It achieves a peak accuracy of 96.74%. This optimal history length aligns with natural human decision-making timelines. Ablation studies were also conducted. By that we confirm the critical role of the Spatiotemporal Risk Field. Excluding this component caused a significant drop in accuracy. The highest accuracy decrease reached 47%. In comparisons, the SRF-DLC model outperformed some existing methods. This demonstrates that explicit spatiotemporal risk contextualization and appropriate history length selection is crucial in accurate DLC prediction.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-06-29
  • 最后修改日期:2026-08-02
  • 录用日期:2026-08-29
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-09-22
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