基于预测算法的公交车实时到站时间查询系统
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王茁(1987—),女,讲师,主要研究方向为交通规划,交通运输。

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U491

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Real-time Bus Arrival Time Query System Based on Prediction Algorithm
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    摘要:

    公交车是目前城市中最为普遍的一种大众运输工具,随着城市化和机动化的发展,使城市人口和地域不断增加,对公共交通的需求相应快速增长,出行者对公交系统提出了更多更高的要求。 公交车辆到站时间是城市智能公共交通系统服务的重要指标参数之一,也是乘坐公共交通出行者最为关注的基本信息之一,为满足公交出行者对所乘线路公交车辆的到站时间可实时查询的需要,介绍城市公交实时到站时间查询系统的设计。 在需求分析的基础上,通过概念结构、逻辑结构的设计建立了查询系统的数据模型,提出了一种到站时间的预测算法。 该算法将路线划分成站间路段,以实时收集到的车辆进出站信息为基础,从历史纪录中得到通过每个路段的运行时间。 通过聚类分析、判别分析的方法确定预测的运行时间,最后通过简单计算得到用户需要的预测到站时间,并且将到站时间通过网络公开展示给系统的用户。

    Abstract:

    Buses are the most popular means for urban mass transportation. With the development of urbanization and motorization, the population of cities and the scale of regions have been on the rise, which has brought greater demands for public transportation and higher requirements for public traffic system. Bus arrival time, as one of the important parameters in urban intelligent public transport system service, is the basic information that public transport travelers are most concerned about. To meet the needs of the bus travelers to query the bus ar- rival time in real time, this paper explores the design of real-time arrival time query system of city buses. Based on the requirement analysis, the data model of the query system was established through the design of conceptual and logical structure. Then, the prediction of arrival time algorithm was put forward, which divided the route into the station sections and obtained the running time of each section from the historical records based on the data of bus arrival and departure collected in real time. The predicted running time was confirmed by clustering anal- ysis and discriminant analysis. Finally, the prediction of arrival time for users was obtained by simple calculation and the arrival time was displayed to the system users through the network.

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王茁.基于预测算法的公交车实时到站时间查询系统[J].华东交通大学学报,2018,35(1):46-54.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-05-25
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