The large foundation investments for civil aviation transportation have long construction cycles and are fiercely proprietary. The quantity of fixed investments should match the scale of civil aviation development. Sci- entific demand forecasting is the basis for rational planning of civil aviation infrastructure and fleet construction. The principle of system dynamics is used to analyze the internal and external factors of air passenger demand, and to build the system dynamics model of China's civil passenger transport market demand forecast. The con- siderations are more comprehensive and the accuracy is improved obviously. Using the model built, based on China's economic and social development level, it is predicted that China's air passenger demand will reach 1 billion people in 2024. The system dynamics model of civil aviation passenger market demand has universal app licability and long-term effectiveness for the prediction and analysis of long-term derived civil aviation trans- portation demand.