基于熵权法的农村公路线网规模组合预测
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王雪梅(1988—),女,讲师,研究方向为交通运输规划与管理。

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U412.1

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安吉县“四好农村路”中长期发展规划项目(0219002)


Combination Forecasting of Rural Road Network Scale Based on Entropy Weight Method
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    摘要:

    农村公路线网规模预测是“四好农村路”规划的主要内容之一。 鉴于单一预测方法的局限性,基于熵权法理论,对国土系数法、人口经济密度法、连通度法合理分配权重,提出组合预测方法;以浙江省湖州市安吉县的农村公路为实例,对安吉县历年农村公路网的规模进行拟合,分别验证三种单一预测方法的合理性及其有效性;通过绝对平均误差、绝对平均百分比误差、均方根误差三种误差指标,构建评价矩阵,计算得出三种单一预测方法的权重系数分别为 0.115 4,0.240 3,0.644 3,验证了熵权法能够客观地分配权重系数;对未来特征年农村公路线网规模进行预测,表明组合预测方法可以有效降低单一方法预测的风险。

    Abstract:

    The rural road network scale prediction is one of the main contents of "Four-merit rural roads" planning. In view of the limitations for a single forecasting method, this paper proposes a combined forecasting method based on the theory of entropy weight, which reasonably allocates weight of the land coefficient method, the density of population and economic method, and connectivity method. Taking the rural road in Anji county as an example, it fits the rural road network scale and verifies the validity and rationality of the three single forecasting methods. Through three kinds of error indexes of absolute average error, absolute average percentage error and root mean square error, it constructs evaluation matrix, and respectively calculates the weight coefficients of the three single forecasting methods,namely 0.115 4,0.240 3 and 0.644 3,which verify that entropy weight method can distribute weight coefficients objectively. It shows that the combination forecasting method can reduce the forecasting risk of a single model, which predicts the rural road network scale in future years.

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王雪梅,郭旷,秦连群,鲍雨婕,周希灿.基于熵权法的农村公路线网规模组合预测[J].华东交通大学学报,2020,37(2):89-96.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2021-05-11
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