Combined with the vehicle-track coupling dynamic sub-model of the modern tram, multi-point contact sub-model of wheel and rail and Archard material grinding wear sub-model, a predictive analysis model of wheel wear was established. The accuracy of the model in this paper is verified by comparing with the results of relevant references. It is used to calculate and analyze the influence of the widened gauge on the wheel wear of a modern tram when it passes through a curved track with a small radius. The results show that: under the same line condition, the abrasion of independent wheel rim is greater than that of non-independent wheel； the difference value is 0.94 mm at most, and the results for two kinds of wheel tread are close to each other. For the line with small curve radius, the wheel rim wear is relatively small when the gauge width is 10-15 mm, while the wheel rim wear is relatively uniform when the gauge width is 15 mm. The research results can provide useful reference for modern tram vehicle maintenance.