既有结构时变可靠度预测模型及计算方法研究
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陈梦成(1962—),男,教授,博士,华东交通大学副校长,研究方向为混凝土结构耐久性。E-mail:919367042@qq.com。

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U446.3

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国家自然基金项目(51878275);江西省交通运输厅科技项目(2019Q0024);江西省交通运输厅科技项目(2021H0009);江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ90299)


Study on Time-Varying Reliability Prediction Model and Calculation Method of Existing Structures
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    摘要:

    在复杂环境与荷载作用下,桥梁的抗力会随着时间的推移而退化,可靠性降低,导致桥梁提前破坏,这关系到桥梁耐久性、适用性和安全性问题。 准确评估桥梁的安全状况,为桥梁管养部门在维护、维修和修复等方面及时提出合理建议措施,意义重大。 文章首先建立了 Gamma 随机过程抗力退化模型与泊松(Poisson)随机过程荷载模型。 在此基础上,基于抗力和荷载效应相互独立的基本假定,使用条件概率公式,严格得到了结构失效概率计算表达式,并提出了一种改进的时变可靠度 Monte Carlo 计算方法,最后用 Matlab 语言编制了相应计算程序。 作为一个应用算例,利用文章所建立的双随机过程模型和可靠度计算方法,分析了某现钢筋混凝土 T 型梁桥服役 20 a 的抗力可靠度衰减规律。 与传统的时变可靠度计算方法相比,本文方法不但可行、有效,而且效率高。 另外,以腐蚀机制下的桥梁抗力退化模型为例,预测得到桥梁在后 30 a 时的失效概率以及可靠指标。

    Abstract:

    Under complex environment and load, the deterioration of bridges resistance overtime will reduce the reliability and finally an unexpected failure occur suddenly impacting the durability, adaptability and safety of bridges. Therefore, it is of great significance to evaluate accurately the safety state of bridge and put forward timely reasonable suggestions and measures in maintenance, repair and resilience for bridge management and maintenance department. A Gamma stochastic process model for resistance degradation and a Poisson stochastic process model for live load were firstly established. Based on the two models and basic assumption that resistance and load effect are independent of each other, an expression for calculating structural failure probability was thus derived by using conditional probability formula, and an improved method to compute time-dependent probability calculation with Monte Carlo sampling was proposed. Finally, the Matlab language was used to compile the corresponding numerical program. As a benchmark example, the proposed method was used to investigate the attenuation law of reliability in resistance of a 20 years reinforced concrete T-beam bridge. Compared to the conventional method for calculating time-dependent probability , the present method not only is feasible and effective, but also has higher efficiency. In addition, taking the bridge resistance degradation model under corrosion mechanism as an example, The failure probability and reliability index of the bridge in the next 30 years are predicted.

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陈梦成,张明阳,方苇,杨超,李骐,温清清,谈勇,彭爱红,游勇利.既有结构时变可靠度预测模型及计算方法研究[J].华东交通大学学报,2022,39(4):16-23.
Chen Mengcheng, Zhang Mingyang, Fang Wei, Yang Chao, Li Qi, Wen Qingqing, Tan Yong, Peng Aihong, You Yongli. Study on Time-Varying Reliability Prediction Model and Calculation Method of Existing Structures[J]. JOURNAL OF EAST CHINA JIAOTONG UNIVERSTTY,2022,39(4):16-23

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-09-13
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