分时票价下I型大城市地铁节假日乘客出行时间选择偏好
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华东交通大学交通运输工程学院

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U2

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江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ210654)


The Travel Time Preference of Metro Passengers on Holidays in Type I Metropolitan Metro under Time-dependent Fare
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    摘要:

    为探究分时票价诱导策略能否引入I型大城市地铁运营中用以缓解节假日带来的车站客流严重拥挤,以南昌地铁受访者调查数据为代表分析I型大城市地铁乘客出行时间选择行为。采用SP调查法,设计场景对受访者在出行时间改变长度、票价与拥挤水平三种方案变量影响下的出行时间选择偏好进行数据收集,分别用条件logit模型和混合logit模型对效用函数的变量系数进行估计。结果表明,出行时间改变长度对出行时间选择行为的影响显著且存在负效用,票价水平对出行时间选择行为的影响显著且存在正效用。调查样本无法体现拥挤水平对出行时间选择行为的显著影响。票价较于出行时间改变长度、拥挤水平对出行时间选择行为的影响程度更大,受访者整体更愿意选择高峰前时段出发。年龄<35岁的群体相对于其它年龄组更愿意选择推迟出发,月收入<5000元的群体相对于月收入较高的群体更愿意改变出行时间,乘坐时间在16-30分钟的受访者相对于其他群体更愿意改变出行时间。因此根据结论科学合理地设计时段票价用于缓解I型大城市城市节假日地铁车站严重拥挤是可行的。

    Abstract:

    In order to explore whether time-dependent fare strategy can be introduced into the metro operation of Type I big cities to alleviate the severe passenger flow congestion brought by holidays, the survey data of Nanchang metro respondents is used to analyze the travel time choice behavior of subway passengers in Type I big cities. SP survey method was used to collect data on respondents’ travel time choice preferences under the influence of three scheme variables: travel time change, fare and congestion level. Conditional logit model and mixed logit model were used to estimate the variable coefficients of utility function. The results show that the change length of travel time has a significant and negative effect on travel time choice behavior, and the fare level has a significant and positive effect on travel time choice behavior. The survey sample could not reflect the significant impact of congestion level on travel time choice behavior. Compared with the change length of travel time and the congestion level, the fare has a greater impact on the travel time choice behavior, and the respondents are more willing to choose the pre-peak period. Compared with other age groups, the group <35 years old is more willing to delay departure, the group with a monthly income <5000 yuan is more willing to change the travel time than the group with a higher monthly income, and the respondents with a travel time of 16-30 minutes are more willing to change the travel time than other groups. Therefore, according to the conclusion, it is feasible to design the time fare scientifically and reasonably to alleviate the severe congestion of metro stations on holidays in Type I big cities.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-13
  • 最后修改日期:2024-05-06
  • 录用日期:2024-05-07
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